海角社区

The Department of Economics within the 海角社区 E. J. Ourso College of Business launched the Louisiana Economy Forecasting Model in 2023 as a service to the state. This model provides economic forecasts for Louisiana and the state鈥檚 nine metropolitan areas for the current quarter and three quarters ahead. New forecasts are published quarterly.

At the state level, forecasts are generated for four key economic variables: real Gross State Product (GSP) (a measure of the real value of goods and services produced within Louisiana, analogous to national real GDP), total non-farm employment, the total unemployment rate, and the Louisiana house price index. Due to data limitations, only total non-farm employment is forecast at the metro level.

 

Dashboard Highlights 

The forecasts for the second quarter of 2025 through the first quarter of 2026 suggest continuing slow growth in state economic activity and slow employment growth in all but two metro areas. 

At the state level, employment for this forecast horizon is forecast to be stagnant, growing at a rate of only 0.2%. The federal government recently redefined the metropolitan statistical areas for the U.S. The territory included in several MSAs changed, and a new MSA鈥擲lidell-Mandeville-Covington鈥攚as introduced, and the current forecasts are for the new MSAs. Details about the new MSAs are provided at the link below. Unfortunately, the stagnation at the state level is forecast for the Alexandria, Baton Rouge, Hammond, Lafayette, Lake Charles, Monroe, Shreveport-Bossier City, and Slidell-Mandeville-Covington metro areas, all with forecast employment growth of less than 1%.  Only the Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux and New Orleans-Metairie MSAs are forecast to have growth rates greater than 1%; specifically, growth of 1.5% for Houma-Bayou Cane-Thibodaux and 1.9% for New Orleans-Metairie is forecast.

The unemployment rate is forecast to rise in the current quarter and then to slowly decline to 4.3% in the fourth quarter of 2025.

The disappointing performance of real GSP, the best single measure of overall state economic activity, over the last 20 years is forecast to continue with real GSP forecast to grow slowly at a rate of 0.9%.

After rising sharply during the pandemic, increases in the all-transactions Louisiana house price index slowed sharply in 2022, and house prices are forecast to rise at a rate just below 1% for the current forecast period.

See the details in the forecast report.  

REVIEW THE CURRENT LOUISIANA AND METRO-LEVEL FORECASTS

 

About the Department of Economics

The Department of Economics at 海角社区鈥檚 E. J. Ourso College of Business offers courses that provide undergraduate and graduate students with strong analytic training and the tools to understand the economic and social problems faced both domestically and internationally. The numerous awards received and peer-reviewed scholarly articles published in high-quality economic journals demonstrate the faculty鈥檚 commitment to quality teaching and research.

For more information, visit the Department of Economics or call 225-578-5211.